March 2025: Earth's 3rd-warmest March on record » Yale Climate Connections (2025)

March 2025 was Earth’s third-warmest March in analyses of global weather data going back to 1850, NOAA’sNational Centers for Environmental Information, or NCEI, reported Apr. 10. NASAand the EuropeanCopernicus Climate Change Servicerated March 2025 as the second-warmest March on record. Data from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Berkeley Earth were not available at the time of this writing. Global temperatures in 2024 and so far in 2025 have been substantially higher than in any year prior to 2015.

Global land areas had their second-warmest March on record in 2025, and global oceans also had their second-warmest March, according to NOAA. Europe and Oceana had their warmest March on record; Africa, its third-warmest; South America, its sixth-warmest; North America, its seventh-warmest; and Asia, its 10th-warmest. The Caribbean had its second-warmest March. Northern Hemisphere snow coverduring March 2025 was the seventh lowest since 1967.

The contiguous U.S. had its sixth-warmest March, 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (3°C) above average. U.S. tornadoes in March were more than double the monthly average; three separate outbreaks produced more than 200 tornadoes in total. The month ended with 296 tornadoes, 41 of them being EF2 or stronger. The 515 tornadoes observed Jan. 1-Apr. 10 ranks as the third-highest year-to-date total since 2010, behind 2017 (539) and 2023 (530).

The January to March global surface temperature ranked as the second-warmest in NOAA’s 176-year record. According toNOAA/NCEI’s statistical analysis, there is a 6% chance that 2025 will be the warmest year on record and a 40% chance that it will be the second-warmest, behind 2024.

La Niña conditions end without a full-fledged La Niña episode

The weak La Niña conditions in the Eastern Pacific that began in December ended in March, NOAA reported in its Aprilmonthly discussionof the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. La Niña conditions did not persist for five overlapping three-month periods, which is not long enough to qualify as an officialLa Niña episode, according to NOAA’s definition. TheAustralian Bureau of Meteorology (which uses a more stringent threshold than NOAA for defining La Niña conditions) did not recognize that La Niña conditions occurred this year, saying that ENSO-neutral conditions have prevailed so far in 2025.

According to NOAA’s April forecast, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely through August 2025. For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season (August-September-October), the Apr. 10Columbia University International Research Institute for Climate and Society forecastcalled for a 31% chance of La Niña, a 52% chance of ENSO-neutral, and a 17% chance of El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity through an increase in wind shear, but La Niña conditions tend to have the opposite effect. We are in the midst of the low-skill “spring predictability barrier” for ENSO (see this2015 explainerfrom climate.gov), so the ENSO forecasts issued this month are of lower confidence than usual.

While El Niño events often last only one year (usually from northern fall to northern spring, as in 2023-24), La Niña events often restrengthen or recur across two or even three years in a row, as was the case from mid-2020 to early 2023.

Arctic sea ice: smallest winter peak and lowest March extent on record

Arctic sea ice extent during March 2025 was the lowest in the 47-year satellite record, beating the previous record set in 2018, according to theNational Snow and Ice Data Center, or NSIDC, and making for a streak of four consecutive months since December with the lowest or second-lowest extent on record. On March 22, sea ice extent reached its winter maxima, with an extent that was the lowest on record. During the first six days of April, sea ice extentset new record lows each day, beating out the previous record lows from 2018, but by April 7, 2025, ice extent was merely the second-lowest on record. The Arctic had its seventh-warmest March on record in 2025.

Antarctic sea ice extentin March was the fourth-lowest in the 47-year satellite record. The Antarctic had its 43rd-warmest March on record in 2025.

Notable global heat and cold marks for March 2025

Weather records expert Maximiliano Herrera documents world temperature extremes in remarkable detail and has provided us with the following info for March. Follow him on Bluesky: @extremetemps.bsky.social

• Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 47.5°C(117.5°F) at Gallinas, Mexico, Mar. 4;
• Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -53.8°C (-64.8°F) at East Grip, Greenland, Mar. 6;
• Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 46.4°C (115.5°F) at Birdsville, Australia, Mar. 1; and
• Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -75.5°C (-103.9°F) at Concordia, Antarctica, Mar. 29.

Major weather stations in March: 2 all-time heat records, 0 all-time cold records

Among global stations with a record of at least 40 years, two set, not just tied, an all-time heat record in March, and no stations set an all-time cold record:

• Tamatave (Madagascar) max. 39.0°C, March 2; and
• Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) max. 36.9°C, March 7.

Two all-time national/territorial heat records beaten or tied as of the end of March

• Maldives:35.8°C (96.4°F) at Hanimadhoo, Feb. 27 (previous record: 35.1°C (95.2°F) at Hanimadhoo, Mar. 24, 2024; and
• Togo: 44.0°C (111.2°F) at Mango, Mar. 16 (tie).

Fifteen additional monthly national/territorial heat records beaten or tied as of the end of March

In addition to the two all-time national/territorial records set so far in 2025, 15 nations or territories have set or tied monthly all-time heat records as of the end of March 2025, for a total of 17 such records:

• Jan. (6): Cocos Islands. French Southern Territories, Faroe Islands, Maldives, Northern Marianas, Martinique
• Feb. (3): Northern Marianas, Argentina, Togo
• Mar. (6): French Southern Territories, Algeria, Saba, South Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia

One nation set an all-time monthly cold record in January: Qatar.

Hemispherical and continental temperature records in 2025

• Highest temperature ever recorded in South America in February: 46.5°C (115.7°F) at Rivadavia, Argentina, Feb. 4; and
• Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in South America in February: 30.8°C (87.4°F) at Catamarca, Argentina, Feb. 10.

Bob Henson contributed to this post